Hospital.Help

Berlin Even the increasing number of graduates of doctors and nurses does not mean that the shortage of skilled workers in the health care system has been alleviated. This is shown by a report by the German Hospital Institute (DKI) on behalf of the German Hospital Association (DKG).

According to this, by 2035 the number of doctors will increase by around 15,400 (eight percent), the number of qualified nurses by 32,100 (seven percent) and the number of qualified pediatric nurses by as much as 20 percent (9,100).

But this is not enough. On the one hand, according to the DKI study, this increase would be lower than in previous years. Between 2025 and 2030, the number of people leaving the workforce due to age will even exceed the number of people entering the workforce, despite the increases mentioned above and including immigration. For the period after 2030, the study sees slight improvements and expects rising numbers of graduates.

Furthermore, the high proportion of part-time employment in the health sector would remain a problem. If the trend towards reduced working hours continues, this effect alone could cancel out the small increases in the number of staff and, in the pessimistic case, the number of full-time employees could even fall.

“Even in optimistic scenarios, we will not be able to compensate for the shortage of skilled workers in the health care system with more and more staff, because this staff simply will not be available,” said Gerald Ga, Chairman of the Board of the DKG.

Immigration is also not a solution on its own, as the numbers will never be sufficient and at the same time the typical countries of origin have a higher demand of their own due to demographic change.

Anyone who wants to solve the shortage of skilled workers must not only increase digitalization and flexibility in the use of personnel, but also allow more outpatient treatments in hospitals, says Ga. In addition, consistent debureaucratization is necessary. The workforce of several tens of thousands of skilled workers in nursing alone would be available if the bureaucratic burden was halved.

Our study shows that the skilled labor potential does not have to decrease overall by 2035. However, due to the increasing demand for skilled workers as a result of demographics, there is no reason to sound the all-clear, explained Karl Blum, Chairman of the DKI.

Politicians and hospitals must further increase the attractiveness of the medical and nursing professions in order to compete for trainees and new entrants to the profession and to avoid premature career exits. © aha/aerzteblatt.de