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Exeter/Baku – 2024 will be the global CO₂Emissions increased by 0.8 percent to 37.4 billion tons compared to the previous year. The biggest emitter, China, may be on the verge of cutting emissions. This is the conclusion of the “Global Carbon Budget 2024” report presented today at the World Climate Conference.

The largest increase in carbon dioxide emissions can be observed in India at 4.6 percent. On the other hand, there was a reduction in emissions in the European Union (-3.8 percent) and the USA (-0.6 percent), among others. However, per capita emissions remain high here.

China is on the verge of reducing greenhouse gases. The world’s largest CO₂-Emitters emit over a quarter of all greenhouse gases. A decline in Chinese emissions can be seen in the oil sector due to the mobility transition in favor of electromobility.

“If China reaches the maximum, then we will have already achieved a quarter,” said Niklas Höhne, Director and Managing Director, New Climate Institute, Cologne. “There is great hope that the turning point will happen next year,” said Höhne.

E-mobility reduces emissions in China

Worldwide, the increase in CO₂-Emissions driven primarily by oil and gas, coal accounts for a smaller share. “The trend will probably continue that renewables are displacing coal,” said Judith Hauck, deputy head of the Marine Biogeosciences Section at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research (AWI).

Even Donald Trump couldn’t stop such trends in technologies. The USA has recorded a decrease in emissions of 0.6 percent this year. However, Höhne suspects that Trump wants to expand oil and gas exports.

Another glimmer of hope could be reforestation, as Julia Pongratz, Director of the Department of Geography, Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich, said. “Stricter criteria are applied than in the voluntary carbon market so that greenwashing can be avoided there.”

However, an extremely large amount of forest is currently disappearing due to deforestation and fires, so emissions from land use that were actually falling have increased again this year. Only recently, Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach (SPD) warned against further deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.

And time is running out. According to the study team, the 1.5°C target could be exceeded in six years. This means an excess over several years, not for a single year. In the past twelve months the temperature has already been 1.62°C above the pre-industrial era and the health effects of climate change are being felt, particularly in countries in the Global South.

The number of countries affected by extreme climate-related threats could rise from three to 65 by 2040, according to a report released yesterday by the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR). Climate change particularly affects people who are on the run. According to the UNHCR report, 75 percent of refugees live in countries that are highly exposed to climate-related threats.

New climate protection goals and financing

At the beginning of next year, countries are expected to submit national climate plans to the United Nations (nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The WHO and supporters such as CPHP and the German Alliance for Climate Change and Health (KLUG) are demanding that health be firmly anchored in national climate plans have published a recommendation.

There are some processes in Germany that bring climate change and health together, but Sophie Gepp from the Center for Planetary Health (CPHP) sees a need for action in other areas. While a lot has happened in the area of ​​climate adaptation with the Climate Adaptation Act and the health goals, more efforts are needed in climate protection, she said German medical journal.

“For example, we currently lack a binding national strategy for climate protection in the healthcare sector, which would, however, be central to structured implementation across the entire sector.” New goals for climate financing (New Collective Quantified Goal, NCQG) are essential for the implementation of health-promoting climate protection measures. and adaptation measures, said Gepp. © mim/aerzteblatt.de